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Approx $1 Billion Loss forecasted for Real Estate

03 Apr 2020

As Coronavirus has spreaded all over the world and it has become a national emergency so to fight against this COVID-19, it is declared by our Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi to lockdown completely for 21 days across India. Our Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is helping to reduce our economic problems in this current situation and she has announced an amount of Rs. 1.7 lakh cr under Prime Minister Garib Kalyan Yojana that is quick relief. Currently our country’s financial and economic situations are becoming progressively worse as coronavirus is spreading widely with negative appreciation and there is continuous fall in the stock market from some of the last days. Our main sectors like transport, automobiles, tourism, entertainment and electronics, etc are now facing issues because of disturbance in global supply chain and changes in routine operations too. To fix the cost of the coronavirus lockdown at US$ 120 billion around Rs 9 lakh cr or 4% of GDP, analysts closely cut their growth approximately and checked on the requirement to declare an economic package.

According to reports it is said, “we calculate that the increased shutdown cost will be around US$ 120 billion or 4% of the gross domestic product.  British brokerage firm Barclays estimated the shutdown cost to be around $120 billion or around 4% of their GDP. Hence FY21 growth forecast is revised down by 1.7 percentage points to 3.5 per cent. The cost of the three-week nationwide lockdown is estimated to be alone at US$ 90 billion, which were above the lockdown declared by different states like Maharashtra previously. SME Futures spoke to many experts to understand how the effect of this lockdown is resulting in charges on businesses and their efforts.

MSMEs take the biggest hit

The highest employment generator that is Micro, small and medium enterprises are facing high damages among economic slowdown and demand contraction.The sector is about to lose another stream as economic activities have the biggest hit. As per the reports, it is said  that there are many micro & small businesses that cannot work from home because of their type of work and the major issue is because transports are completely shut-down the supply chains are cracked. According to experts, as the stocks are getting reduced or even deficiency of occupation options due to the complete lockdown results an impending conclusion of their businesses and it is even said that work from home option is relevant to less than 8% of the core MSME and services sector. Work from home created over 63% fall in productivity in the services industry as because of moving of labourers to their villages.

As per the reports, almost 60-odd million MSMEs are facing problems because of market issues with 92% fall in domestic sales as compared to previous years. Even sales exports have a fall of 100% as compared to last year. There are many small businesses that they work on a monthly amount of sequence and they might have not even saved for further. These indications are not only to their income but also the people who are hired. Approx it is suggested that 30 - 60% MSMEs will get exterminated if the present situation does not stop in 9-13 weeks. After agriculture MSMEs are the 2nd highest job providers. In addition, laborers without jobs who have returned back to villages could be carrying coronavirus with them and that might result in many positive cases of that virus 

Food & Beverages industry survival in question!

Industry of food services value is Rs. 4,23,865 cr. Due to this current lockdown the restaurant industry is also facing big problems because they are unable to run their operations. Industry that faced large job losses attempts for quick financial assistance from the government.  The National Restaurant Association of India has written and asked for a package from the Finance Minister. As per NRAI president, the restaurant industry with yearly income of around Rs. 4 lakh cr providing quickest employment around 7 million people are presently facing uncertain situations and struggling for their basic needs. Currently in this situation of unmatched crisis, around 7.30 millions of employees in the F&B sector is our highest review. 

Real Estate – construction in major cities halts sales slump:

Coronavirus has affected business occupation and the fight for real estate has become more severe. As the present situation is becoming intensified so the construction field has taken a reasonable hit. The effect is like it has put noteworthy depression on real estate. As per to the India Ratings estimation, lockdown of a month can remove a remarkable chunk of the 4th quarter revenue of construction companies. Fourth quarter of every revenue usually accounts for 30-35% of the yearly income of construction companies, and month's lockdown can remove 8-10%. According to the agencies construction activities across cities such as Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, Delhi and Bengaluru are likely to be stopped or progress at an important forecast speed for a severe portion of March 2020 and it might continue in April also.

As per the present situation, some experts said, Real Estate as a group advances on customer impression at the project site for successful conclusion of transactions and with this outbreak, sites are being closed to avoid large numbers of customers as well as channel partners gathered. Lockdown could decide with the corresponding ones from a year earlier set-back of anywhere between 11-14 percent.The Middle Income and affordable housing units will be affected too because its success mainly depends on a huge number of gatherings and higher impression. Due to this current situation, projects that were mostly awaited are even postponed. The screen is equally serious for the ongoing projects because it is always expected from real estate to perform good in the financial year, i.e March that is effect of buying to avoid capital gain tax and asset purchases According to reports, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region might notice a 27% decrease in registrations of property.Region has dealt 9,300 home registrations between 1st January to 15th March, 2020, as compared to 12,800 home registrations in the January-March 2019 quarter. Sales have got affected and a number of developers are showing unity to check in addition to this virus.

Some developers are  doubtful about launching their new upcoming projects because of this present situation and some of them opted for launching it digitally and even introduced opportunities of online sales. Runwal group has taken a major decision that all construction sites should be sanitized as well as stop the work also till they get any further news for worker's safety. Runwal Group have also postponed their projects launches and campaigns as well, even site offices are closed. Under other conditions, projects like ‘Codename Amazon’ at Andheri have converted the launch into digital. Previously they had planned launch with brokers as well as channel partners but because of this present situation they have  conducted it in digital one where requests would be accepted online from the customers and after getting this virus settled, time slots would be given to the customers so that a huge number of people gathered will be avoided. According to the Wadhwa group, "Corona pandemic might stop the on-ground project operations but it affected the sales also in the short term. Wadhwa group have business continuity plan and required project finance in place and their design theories support of strong execution capability has supported them to meet customers’ obligations and generate further interest digitally. Wadhwa group virtual site tours are admired by the customers. Even though this season, the sales numbers might not see any quick spurt but they are expecting minimum 30 percent sales through the digital stage.


The co-working startup dilemma:

Due to this present lockdown, the start-up sectors and co-working spaces are on hold. So they look for government support to bailout. As per the reports, The difficulty with the co-working spaces is that private companies provide services to only private companies so they doubt whether it shall be open or not.  The co-working spaces are facing issues to maintain the clients and have explained that they don't have any authority as a company for taking any stance, like the IT sector operating with a minimum workforce. In accordance with this recent case it is said by an expert that, We have a company that is regulated by the RBI, and according to the notice such companies are allowed to work with less capacity of employees. However, it is informed by them that because of lockdown the space would be shut. Multiple companies are facing such issues and even losing clients. Some clients are also demanding for a rent-free period and even mails have been received with the place shut,so there will be no operating expenses and money would be saved. The expert mentioned that his income loss is between Rs. 15-17 lakh per month and cash flow losses of about Rs.15 lakh a  month. The situation to understand is that if the companies who have not stopped salaries of their employees because of “work from home”; the same should be applied to a co-working space. Now it is a fear that losing members would take place because of the shutdown of startups. Co-working spaces face the same providence as that of food delivery services sectors such as aggregators, the co-working space industry remains insignificant. It is also said like, Government should be allowed for some time by the community for the process of this unreal crisis. This is the time when owners of co-working?spaces should check with their stakeholders to attempt relief. Start-ups and waivers to the members could be worked out in a long period of time but this is the time that these members too support to come with a quick fix and work for all.


Outsourcing struggles:

As lockdown has hit hard the IT / ITeS. Even IT firms and call centres put their efforts to work from home (WFH) as it is hard to carry out. There are many companies that provide business services like Information technology services, call centres and business process automation that were not even prepared for work from work system. The Industry is struggling for setting up its own business continuity plan.In the southern tech centre of Bengaluru, an employee mentioned that her managers were not allowing to do work from home so he said that, "Even if I get that virus, I know the death ratio for young people is not that high, but I'm scared for my family, what if it gets transferred from me to them. So it was told to Reuters by her on the condition of anonymity. At times, companies are be on the lookout for client permission before getting allowed from employees to work on delicate projects, outside the office, a senior human resources executive was mentioned by an expert. Nowadays, the challenge is not only about the technology, but it is the regulation and in this condition if something goes wrong so who will take the responsibility, said by a person. Under other conditions, HR solution provider thinks that this current situation of lockdown has obstruct the industry upright on services. Scenery of the work area has been changed and force it to a new pattern. Different systems of work occur especially when you skip it by multiple standards of information security / application controls / process controls in a short period of time is a difficulty in the industry.

 

Most IT firms, follow measures from the government:

  1. Banking limits are been increased without any extra demand on security presuming cycle of 3months – 20% increase in OD limits or cash credit 

  2. Postpone all regulatory transactions by 30 days and linked filings for 2 months enabling industry to reclaim

  3. Provide employee payments a soft money loan during this cycle or such as western countries, provide government grants against such payments up to 80% of the amount.

 

B2B foresees growth in business development:

There are most of the businesses that are cautious of the challenges of the general operations, and there are some firms especially in the B2B segment seem fearless.

 

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Outskirts of Mumbai - KalyanDombivaliVirarPanvel, etc

 

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